Accurate grain output prediction allows China to mitigate food shortages, react to global price rises or plan storage and export measures.

As tensions around Iran intensify, a potential disruption to global fertiliser supply chains is raising concerns about food production worldwide. But for China, an unusual advantage is coming into focus: the ability to predict grain output more than six months in advance with striking accuracy. That capability – refined over decades – could allow Beijing to move early, reshaping risk into strategic leverage. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy and commodity flows, has emerged…

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