The bank predicts flat sales at best – and a 5 per cent decline at worst – because incentives have merely brought demand forward.

Car sales in mainland China are likely to slide in 2026, breaking a six-year streak, if Beijing stops granting cash subsidies and tax incentives to buyers, according to a JPMorgan forecast that looms over the earnings outlook for the country’s 100-odd vehicle assemblers. “We expect retail [car] sales to see flat growth next year in a bullish scenario,” Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan, said in an interview. “The market has more than a 50 per cent chance of seeing…

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