Shortly after the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Congresswoman and First Lady Cilia Flores in the first days of the year, the White House turned its “regime change” machine toward another energy powerhouse: Iran. Approaching its 47th anniversary, the Islamic Revolution has always been a thorn in the side of the US and, especially, Israel.
Tehran is one of the biggest supporter of the Palestinian cause in the world and, in practice, the biggest obstacle to the Zionist project of “Greater Israel,” which presupposes the expulsion, or extermination, of not just the Palestinian people from their land, but also parts of the Lebanese and Syrian populations. Therefore, overthrowing the Iranian revolutionary government has always been among the priorities of Washington and Tel Aviv.
Like Venezuela, Iran is also the target of heavy Western sanctions, imposed in different waves since the revolution that overthrew the dictatorship of Shah Reza Pahlavi. These sanctions have caused countless losses to its economy and its people, and since October, they have been aggravated by a new round of sanctions imposed through the United Nations (UN).
Furthermore, the US admitted to carrying out financial attacks to devalue the Iranian currency in recent months, causing enormous economic pressure that initially triggered legitimate and peaceful popular protests.
However, after a few days, mainly on January 8 and 9, these protests took a violent turn, provoked likely by infiltration by agents oriented by the US and Israel (as publicly admitted by both), causing destruction and death in the streets of the country, and were strongly repressed by Iranian security forces. As a popular reaction, massive street mobilizations in support of the government took place on January 12.
Since then, the US has been deploying numerous military forces to the region, and Trump spent days threatening to bomb Iran. But, in recent days, he seems to have backed down after Iranian threats that a US attack would result in a regional war. A first round of negotiations between the US and Iran took place last Friday, February 6, in the United Arab Emirates, apparently still without significant results. But both countries have stated that they are discussing the possibility of a second round of negotiations.
To analyze this situation, Brasil de Fato spoke with Mohammad Marandi, professor of English literature at the University of Tehran and a geopolitical analyst who focuses on Iran in Western media.
Marandi is the son of an important figure in the Islamic revolutionary movement, the pediatrician Alireza Marandi, who was twice minister of health of the Islamic Republic. Until he was 13 years old, Marandi lived in the US, where his family was in exile to escape the dictatorship of Shah Pahlavi.
Shortly after returning to Iran at age 16, Marandi volunteered to fight in the war against Iraq, in which he escaped death four times – after being shot twice and targeted by two chemical attacks.
Check out the full interview:
Brasil de Fato: In recent days, the US has sent its navy to the Persian Gulf region, and Trump has threatened to attack Iran, attempting to force negotiations for the country to suspend its nuclear program, surrender its ballistic missiles, and stop supporting Palestinian resistance in the region. What are the chances of negotiation on these terms? What is the Iranian government willing to negotiate?
Mohammad Marandi: The Iranian position is quite clear. In fact, it’s quite clear that it will not negotiate its military capabilities. Therefore, its missile program is out of the question. It will also not negotiate its regional alliances. Therefore, those are also out of the question.
The nuclear program is something Iran is willing to discuss, but not enrichment itself. That’s also out of the question. What can be negotiated is a mechanism to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful. This is something we’ve done before, and which Trump himself destroyed. The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the 2015 nuclear agreement. So, that’s what Iran is willing to negotiate.
Of course, Iran will expect a much better deal than the 2015 one at the negotiating table. Because Iran has moved on since then and has been betrayed by the US’s violation of that agreement. And Iran has suffered because of it. Therefore, the only thing really open for negotiation is a framework in which Iran’s uranium enrichment program can operate and address, or take into account, the concerns, or potential concerns, of Western countries.
BdF: The Iranian government has responded in recent days that any attack on the country will be met with a regional war against the US and its allies. If this happens, what are the possible military and economic consequences of a regional conflict? The Wall Street Journal published an article stating that Trump backed down from an attack at this time due to a lack of sufficient defense for his allies in the region in the event of an Iranian counter-attack. How do you assess this statement?
MM: Yes, this is a position that the Iranians have stated, and they will definitely follow through on what they said they will do. If the United States attacks Iran, even if it is a limited attack, the Iranians will respond with full force. Iran will not accept aggression and will not allow the United States to be encouraged to commit aggression. Therefore, if the United States decides to attack Iran, there is no doubt that the United States will suffer a very strong attack.
BdF: The recent protests, which began over a legitimate economic issue – the devaluation of the rial – were clearly exploited by external forces, such as Mossad (acknowledged by both Mike Pompeo and Israeli authorities), to destabilize the government. Western media has been stirring up a “scandal” about the alleged thousands of deaths attributed to the repression of the protests, but nothing is said about the number of police officers and officials murdered by foreign intelligence agents. What really happened during those days?
MM: It’s quite clear what happened. The West is making up a story. They carried out a conspiracy against the country, first by pressuring the rial, something the US treasury secretary has already admitted twice and even boasted about. Then, there were peaceful protests, which resulted in no arrests or police persecution. But after a few days of protests, which weren’t very large, very well-trained protesters and provocateurs, killed a large number of police officers on the night of Thursday, January 8. And on January 9, the police and security forces clashed with them. And 3,117 people were killed, including police officers and many innocent bystanders who were targeted by these terrorists because they wanted to increase the number of casualties to justify US intervention.
And of course, as you correctly pointed out, Mossad admitted its role. They issued a statement in Persian saying that they are on the ground. [Mike] Pompeo [former secretary of state in Trump’s first term] stated twice in a tweet, and also on Israel’s Channel 13, that the United States and Israel are on the streets with the protesters. And on Israel’s Channel 13 news, he said that the US is involved.
In addition, Israel’s Channel 14 said that they brought weapons into Iran, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of police officers. After that, we saw this Western media campaign with ridiculous numbers, basically to justify the war. But the Iranian government released the number of victims and the names of each person, along with their identification details. And, in general, the Western media ignored this, even without having a response to it. But the United States and the West are unable to provide alternative numbers, because they simply make up numbers.
BdF: Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly boasted of a financial attack on the Iranian currency, which allegedly caused the sharp devaluation of the rial. Beyond this supposed “financial attack”, have the new sanctions imposed by the US and the EU through the UN, via the snapback mechanism related to the end of the JCPOA negotiations (since October), had any effect, making foreign trade even more difficult for Iran? How much has the economic war imposed by the West harmed the Iranian economy?
MM: The snapback mechanism failed largely because the Russians and Chinese refused to recognize it. The US and Europeans coordinate with each other, and also with certain countries in the region, to exert pressure on other entities, other countries. So we have decades of sanctions and maximum pressure sanctions. We have also had them for years.
But this was a coordinated effort to suddenly bring down the currency in order to start and inflame violent unrest. As I said, during these riots, they burned 15 people alive. They destroyed hundreds of banks. In 48 hours, they literally destroyed hundreds of very expensive ambulances and fire engines, public buses, hundreds of educational centers and libraries, and hundreds of mosques. It was extraordinary how fast they were, how well trained they were to carry out this operation.
BdF: *So, why do the US insist on trying to overthrow the Islamic revolutionary government after almost 50 years, even though it has failed so far?*MM: In fact, there are two reasons. One is that after the revolution, Iran became independent from both the Western and Eastern blocs, and this independence was something that neither the US-led bloc nor the Soviet Union and its bloc liked. Therefore, they cooperated together against the country.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States continued to antagonize Iran. In addition, Iran’s support for liberation movements around the world, whether in South Africa, Latin America, and of course Palestine, was also one of the main reasons for their hostility. The liberation movement that most bothers Americans is that of the Palestinian people. In fact, at the moment, this is the biggest reason for US hostility towards Europe.
BdF: *Both Western governments and the media promoted the son of the former Shah Reza Pahlavi as a possible “option” in a potential regime change operation. Mr. Pahlavi has been away from Iran since the revolution. How is his popularity in the country currently?*MM: He is not popular among the Iranian people. He has never lived in the country in the last 50 years. His father and grandfather were extremely corrupt, and his father created the feared secret police SAVAK [Organization for National Security and Intelligence]. When the revolution happened, they stole billions of dollars and took it abroad. Today, he is constantly seen with Netanyahu and is asking the Israelis and Americans to bomb Iran. Obviously, a person like that will not have support among the people. He is also a somewhat ridiculous character, and his family has many problems that are constantly ridiculed by ordinary Iranians. Therefore, he has no legitimacy or popular support. He is just a tool of the empire to mobilize its resources against the country.
BdF: *What has been the role of Iran’s strategic partners, China and Russia, during the tense last few weeks of attacks by the US and the Zionist regime? Are they supporting Iran economically or militarily? To what extent can an attack on Iran at this moment be interpreted as an attack on BRICS?*MM: The Russians, Chinese and Iranians cooperate a lot. They have extensive trade and business relations. They do not provide assistance in the sense of giving something to Iran for free. Iran buys what it needs from Russia and China, and to a large extent, especially from Russia. The cooperation is very close. Russia also buys what it needs from the Iranians, both military and civilian. Trade routes between the three countries are also expanding.
The north-south corridor between Iran and Russia and the New Silk Road with China. All of this is moving forward. The relationship with Russia has evolved more quickly in some respects because both countries are fully sanctioned, and that facilitates cooperation. But because of China’s weight, the relationship with China is obviously very important. And yes, there is no doubt that an attack on Iran is an attack on the BRICS. It is an attack on a multipolar world. The United States is desperately trying to preserve its empire.
BdF: *A common criticism from progressive and anti-imperialist circles in Latin America regarding Iran is to label the country a so-called “theocracy,” since the head of state is the Supreme Leader, an Ayatollah. At the same time, Iran has democratic elections for both presidents – with a rotation of different political orientations – and for Parliament. How would you characterize the Iranian political system?*MM: I think that in Latin America, the left is often influenced by Western narratives. And therefore, they are very mistaken about Iran. Iran is an Islamic republic and therefore not a theocracy, it is an Islamic democracy. All democracies have their limitations, and an Islamic democracy is also a limited democracy. Of course, I do not consider Western countries to be democratic. And I think that, after Epstein, it became very clear that the West is ruled by the “Epstein class”. And democracy is just a facade.
But in Iran, the leader himself is chosen by a council of experts. And he can be removed by the council of experts. We have the president and parliament, who are chosen by the people, and we have local elections for cities and municipalities. And there are also elections. It is not a utopia, but Iran is much more open and democratic than the US allies throughout our region. And, as I said, the West has exposed itself for what it really is, especially after Epstein.
BdF: The revolution is nearing its 50th anniversary and has shown an impressive capacity for resilience, despite being targeted by the US from the very first day of the popular movement’s victory that led to the revolution. Consider, for example, the development of science, where Iran has achieved many important milestones (pharmaceuticals, military, nuclear program, etc.), despite the heavy sanctions imposed by the West. What do you think are the main achievements of the revolution for the Iranian people after almost half a century of resistance and attempts to build a sovereign path for their country?
MM: Iran has achieved a great deal under the maximum pressure sanctions and the war that the US and the West have imposed on Iran through Saddam Hussein and, more recently, through Israel, and despite the terrorism that the West has imposed on the country. We see that the country has made great strides in areas of high technology, and I think its defense capabilities reflect that. The very fact that Iran was able to defend itself against the joint attacks by the US and Israel and was able to respond in a way that forced them to retreat shows, in my opinion, Iran’s broader capabilities as a technologically advanced country.
Universal education in Iran, which was very low before the revolution, especially for women, is now among the highest in the world, both at the school and university levels. And if there were no sanctions, Iran today would probably be ahead of most of the more developed countries in the Global South, and even many of the countries in the West. It was under wars, terrorism, and sanctions that Iran achieved so much. And so I think that with the rise of the BRICS and the decline of the Western Empire, the coming years will be easier for Iranians to develop, and we hope to have the opportunity to address the shortcomings we have today as a result of global power hostility.
First published in Portuguese in Brasil de Fato.
The post “US aggression against Iran is an attack on BRICS and the multipolar world,” says geopolitical analyst appeared first on Peoples Dispatch.
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