The U.S. is once again threatening a war on Iran that could devastate the region. Trump knows Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, but that has never been the point. It is about removing Iran as the only actor in the region beyond U.S. control.
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It’s not quite as simple as that.
Militarily, Iran poses neither more nor less of a threat now than it did a year ago or two years ago or five years ago or…
The thing that’s noteworthy about Iran right now is that it’s going through one of its periods of protest and calls for reform and modernization. And if you look back through the history of the region, you’ll find that every time that happens, it leads to a marked (and not coincidentally Israeli-backed) increase in US hostility and threats.
That in turn undermines the reformists and shifts power back to the hard right theocrats, who can and do present themselves as the strong and decisive leaders who will protect Iran from the evil threats of the evil US. And that is the exact goal of current US policy, as it has been every time in the past that this same basic chain of events has played out.
The thing that Israel and the US most fear in the region is not Iran in and of itself, but a stable, prosperous, modern Iran under a healthy, democratically-elected government. That would free up much of the resources the theocrats have to spend simply maintaining their rule and would greatly broaden the opportunities available to Iranians, which in turn would greatly strengthen Iran’s position on the world stage. And that’s the thing that Israel and the US fear the most, so that’s the thing current US policy is intended to prevent.
So yes - in a broad sense this is about the threat Iran is seen to pose. But it’s not quite as simple as that…
