Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell is pushing the idea that only Labour can beat Reform in Gorton & Denton. The problem is she’s using a highly dubious poll to make that argument:
This is why I’ve been saying what I have – only voting Labour defeats Reform. A vote for the Greens or any other party risks a Reform MP in Manchester. https://t.co/7YjTaBum2Q
— Lucy Powell MP (@LucyMPowell) January 28, 2026
What’s so dubious about this poll, you ask?
Let’s get into it.
Sample size
The eager pollsters among you have probably noticed that Find Out Now used a sample size of 143 people. 1,000 people is considered a good sample size, with the British Polling Council noting:
Statistical theory indicates that the more people who are interviewed in a poll, then, other things being equal, the more likely it is that it will accurately reflect the views of the population.
However, there is a law of diminishing returns. A poll of 2,000 people is not twice as likely to be accurate as one of 1,000 people. As a result, there is no “minimum” sample size which is acceptable. But bearing in mind cost and likely accuracy, the established norm for an opinion poll in Great Britain is that it interviews at least 1,000 people.
A sample size of 143 people is 1.5 tenths what you’d expect; i.e. you should assume a high degree of inaccuracy.
Less than 100 once you exclude undecided voters, completely fucking insane that they think this is at all scientific. They did one like this for Great Yarmouth but that at least was a hypothetical one for GE29, this is for an imminent by-election and it’s basically disinformation
— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) January 28, 2026
Powell clearly wasn’t confident in the poll, because she turned off replies from people she wasn’t following. Awkwardly, though, one of her follows was journalist Carole Cadwalladr, who tweeted the following:
Lucy, you’ve disabled replies so as one of the few people who can respond to this, I feel I should. If the Labour Party genuinely believes this, it is morally repugnant that it didn’t let Andy Burnham run. Now enable replies & let everyone else say it too
— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla) January 29, 2026
As we reported, Labour screwed Burnham out of an opportunity to run, despite him being their most qualified candidate in Manchester by a Curry Mile. This is what polling looks like on that front:
In Gorton and Denton, Reform beat Labour on current polling…
Unless Andy Burnham is the candidate pic.twitter.com/W7b52Eoei2
— Oli Dugmore (@OliDugmore) January 23, 2026
Only Labour
Labour’s message in Gorton & Denton isn’t what they can do for the area; it’s ‘only we can beat Reform‘:
Only Labour can defeat Reform in Gorton and Denton. A vote for the Greens or any other party risks them getting in.
We are a tolerant, proud, progressive city and we don’t want their divisive brand of politics here. pic.twitter.com/5qjIRto0SO
— Lucy Powell MP (@LucyMPowell) January 28, 2026
The problem is this: what if Labour don’t beat Reform?
If they don’t offer anything and they don’t win, people are going to start thinking ‘well I might as well just vote Green‘. Many already are, in fact, with some polls reflecting that:
Just admit you’re cooked and move on brother https://t.co/LDympAXkxp pic.twitter.com/R55fQPKEjE
— Hugo Papé
(@HugoPap2) January 27, 2026
It’s important to remember that polls are snapshots of the moment; not predictions of the future.
And with a month left of this by-election campaign, it’s all still to play for.
Featured image via David Dixon (Wikimedia)
By Willem Moore
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