Donald Trump’s aircraft carrier strike group looks poised to strike Iran. But this would be no butcher-and-bolt Venezuelan kidnap operation. The balance of power in the region is delicate and complicated. And an attack could set the region and the world alight.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah is a staunch Iranian ally. On January 28, a Hezbollah official delivered a warning that strikes could “trigger a volcano in the region”. Nawaf al Moussawi said:

what holds the United States back is its inability to predict the aftermath of the strike.

The story in Iran in recent months is one of rebellion and repression as protests over the costs of living were met with brutal state violence. A media and internet black-out makes verification perilously difficult, but estimates of the death toll range from 6,000 to 30,000.

Lofty (and, again, unverified) claims from Israeli and US actors that their intelligence agencies are among the protestors have further confused matters. Yet Iran is not a weak power in the region. And her allies in Lebanon and Iraq may yet influence the outcome of any attack.

Al Moussawi said:

Washington has been seeking to topple the political system in Iran ever since the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Asked how Hezbollah could respond, Moussawi said:

We will cross that bridge when we get to it.

Israeli press carried comments from Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem:

when Trump threatens Imam Khamenei, he threatens tens of millions who follow his leadership, and it’s our duty to confront this threat by any means.

Credible force

The presence of a credible military force, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, tells its own story. The Lincoln – with her gigantic airpower and accompanying warships — was rerouted on short notice from the Indo-Pacific to the Arabian sea for whatever task Trump envisions.

Trump insists on referring to the fleet as his “beautiful armada” and has pulled US troops out of Qatar. He has talked about protecting protestors as part of his rationale, but also about forcing Iran into submission over a nuclear deal.

Even insiders are unsure what Trump will do. Ex-Pentagon and US Special Forces official Seth Jones told the Financial Times:

This looks like the US is planning to use military force. What is less clear [are] the objectives.

There is nothing simple about an operation against Iran. As former US defence official Dana Stroul told the paper:

There’s nothing about the Venezuela playbook that could be applied to Iran.

And there are other powerful regional actors who could shape events.

Iraq, Trump, and Maliki

Former Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki — whose premiership is mired in allegations of despotism, sectarian violence, and corruption — has been put forward by the governing coalition of Shia-parties (known as the Coordination Framework) as their nominee to become prime minister.

Inside Iraq, Maliki is widely viewed as an Iranian lackey and by Washington as Iran’s right hand man. Maliki previously served as PM from 2006 to 2014 during a period of intense violence under US occupation.

Trump is not enamoured with the idea. He said the US would stop supporting Iraq if Maliki returned to power:

The US president wrote on Truth Social that Maliki would be a “very bad choice”, adding: “Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos.”

It appears that Iran, behind closed doors, is desperately reshuffling the political deck in Baghdad — a country which for years provided it with illicit access to liquid dollars.

Maliki responded bluntly, according to the BBC:

Maliki rejected US interference in Iraq’s internal affairs and said he considered the comments a “violation” of the country’s sovereignty and its democratic order.

But Maliki has been a strong proponent of Iranian interference in Iraq. But Iraq may not be a strong card for Iran to play.

Next steps

Trump has taken a belligerent posture in 2026.

His attack on Venezuela and threats against Greenland, Mexico, Colombia, Cuba and other states suggest he is increasingly inclined to threaten and cajole his way through international affairs.

He faces internal crises too in the wake of a series of apparent street executions of US citizens by federal officers in Minneapolis.

It’s unclear whether he will strike Iran, but could that pave the way for imminent negotiations to forge a new nuclear deal?

What is clear is that the US president is increasingly unpredictable on both the world and domestic stages.

Featured image via the Canary

By Joe Glenton

From Canary via This RSS Feed.