Zack Polanski’s Greens are closing the gap on Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, as shown in the latest YouGov voting intention poll — achieving major gains.

Greens up, Reform down

Reform’s lead is down two points, standing at 24% for two consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the Greens are up three points to 17%. This means the Polanski-led party is now just seven points behind Farage’s faction.

At the same time, the Conservatives stand at 18%, Labour at 19% and the Lib Dems are trailing on 14%. The result would likely lead to a hung parliament, with all five parties securing significant seats.

But it’s important to note that pollsters tend to underestimate the support of progressive parties. That’s because they exclude people who don’t typically vote. These are people who progressive parties can inspire.

Additionally, there is currently no election campaign happening. Most people only pay significant attention to politics during an election campaign. This means progressive parties like the Greens and the democratically-led Your Party (not currently included in most opinion polls) can make greater gains through a strong ground campaign.

Age demographics

When it comes to age, young people are more likely to vote Green and older people Reform. Among 18-24s, 45% would vote for the Green party. Yet for 65+, 35% would vote for Reform. At 25-49, the leading vote share is split between Labour and Greens at 20% apiece. And at 50-64, 25% would vote for Reform. Although that has dropped by nine points in two weeks.

Older people are more likely to have consistently voted throughout the years and so could be overrepresented in opinion polls. That’s when a strong alternative from the Greens and Your Party (or a coalition between these parties and the centre to stop Farage) could inspire more young people to vote. It’s also worth noting that millennials, Gen X, Gen Z, and Baby Boomers each make up roughly 20% of the population.

Baby Boomers are less likely to see issues with the system today. That’s because they could afford homes, had free university, had essentials in public ownership, had less inequality and an economy that wasn’t stagnating. Today, they still own homes increasing in ‘value’ amid the housing bubble.

That’s not to say it’s an intergenerational battle but people may have tunnel vision when it comes to their own circumstances.

But it looks like the Greens are on the up. The Green party making gains on Reform is positive for anyone who wants both progressive change and to put a stop to Farage.

Featured image via the Canary

By James Wright

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