The vast majority of exports from Mexico are from US corporations, while aluminum, steel, and tomatoes, which have Mexican national ownership, face significant tariffs.

This article by Blanca Juárez originally appeared in the January 17, 2026 edition of Sin Embargo.

Mexico City. Mexico has managed to withstand tariff pressures better than any other country, but at the same time faces pressures on issues such as security. Industrial integration and, to a lesser extent, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have provided some protection. However, automotive exports are already declining, and, pressured by the Trump administration , Mexico imposed tariffs on China and other Asian countries.

From the first day of his second term, January 20, 2025, Trump instructed officials to analyze potential tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China. On February 1, the White House officially announced an additional 25 percent tariff on all imports from our country due to the “extraordinary threat posed by illegal immigrants and drugs, including deadly fentanyl .” From then on, he went after everyone.

Neither the surrender of dozens of drug kingpins, the dismantling of drug labs, nor the 50 percent reduction in fentanyl trafficking has been enough for the United States. A few days ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded “concrete and verifiable results” from Mexico in the fight against drug cartels. At other times, Rubio has praised Mexico’s cooperation on security issues.

“Several economists have pointed out that Mexico has been treated well by the United States,” but “Mexico has subordinated itself to the guidelines of the United States government, which has asked it to curb imports from China and buy more from the United States.”

In terms of migration flows , U.S. authorities themselves have reported “progress.” The December report , the most recent from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), reports 30,375 encounters with migrants . This represents a 92 percent decrease compared to the Joe Biden administration.

“Several economists have pointed out that Mexico has been treated well by the United States,” said Arturo Huerta, a professor and researcher at the Faculty of Economics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), in an interview. But “Mexico has subordinated itself to the guidelines of the United States government, which has asked it to curb imports from China and buy more from the United States,” he added.

In December 2026, Congress approved a reform submitted by President Claudia Sheinbaum imposing tariffs of 5 to 50 percent on products from Asian countries, including China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The President denied that the reform targeted China, explaining that the tariffs would apply to countries with which Mexico does not have trade agreements.

Following the approval of the changes to the General Import and Export Tax Law, China expressed its disagreement. The Ministry of Commerce stated that its country “has always opposed any form of unilateral tariff increases and hopes that Mexico will correct such unilateral and protectionist practices as soon as possible.”

Arturo Huerta questions the “fair treatment” of Mexico, noting that “in the automotive industry, exports of cars that do not comply with the rules of origin established within the free trade agreement have fallen.” On January 12, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that, in 2025, Mexico produced 34.8 percent fewer heavy vehicles than in 2024, and exports of such vehicles fell by 28.6 percent.

The tariffs on China will “impact the national economy,” increasing costs, because auto parts manufactured in Mexico for import and for the domestic market have Chinese components, explained Arturo Huerta.

How It All Began

Call after call, President Claudia Sheinbaum has managed to curb Donald Trump’s tariff pushes. The first additional tariff against Mexico was imposed on February 1st and was 25 percent on all imports. But the President managed to pause its implementation for a month after speaking with her counterpart on February 3rd.

Both governments agreed to establish a working group on trade and security. Mexico pledged to reinforce its northern border and deploy 10,000 National Guard troops. The United States, for its part, agreed to work together to prevent arms trafficking into Mexican territory.

Rafael Caro Quintero

During that period, the Mexican government extradited an unprecedented 29 Mexican drug lords to the United States. Among them was Rafael Caro Quintero, founder of the Guadalajara Cartel and accused of murdering Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent Enrique Camarena.

Despite this, the 25 percent tariff went into effect on March 4, violating the USMCA. Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she might impose tariffs and non-tariff measures. But she continued negotiating and, at the same time, called for a large rally in Mexico City’s Zócalo on Sunday the 9th, where she would announce her strategy.

On March 6, Sheinbaum and Trump spoke by phone again, and the President secured a postponement until April 2. On Sunday, before a packed Zócalo, she told the assembled citizens: “We are not extremists, but we are very clear that there are non-negotiable principles. We cannot relinquish our sovereignty, nor can our people be harmed by decisions made by foreign governments or hegemonies. In that case, we will always act immediately.”

And then came April 2nd, dubbed “Liberation Day” by Donald Trump. Another chaotic date for global stock markets, which plummeted after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs against almost the entire world, including Europe and the Heard and McDonald Islands, inhabited only by seals and penguins.

Mexico was exempt from those tariffs due to the USMCA. However, it did apply tariffs of 25 percent to goods not covered by that treaty, as well as 25 percent to steel, aluminum, and vehicles.

On July 31, after a phone call, the President secured another extension, this time of 90 days, for the implementation of 25 percent tariffs on all imports. “The USMCA is being safeguarded,” the President said at the time.

In August, Mexico extradited 26 more drug kingpins to the United States, including Servando Gómez Martínez, alias “La Tuta,” leader of La Familia Michoacana, whom Mexican authorities identified as one of the country’s most bloodthirsty drug lords. However, that same month, Trump again increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent.

In November, before the deadline agreed upon in July, the two leaders spoke again. In a very brief call, as Sheinbaum reported, they agreed to continue reviewing the 54 non-tariff barriers that the United States is challenging Mexico’s position on. These are regulations that, according to the Trump administration, are abusive and harm American products.

“These same tariffs violate the agreements reached in the World Trade Organization” and the USMCA, notes economist Arturo Huerta.

Both in the USMCA renegotiation and in the tariff negotiations, the United States will try to reduce its trade deficit with Mexico, the expert points out. “It has already reduced its deficit with China by importing more from Mexico and other countries. But they are about to further boost their industry and will continue to pressure Mexico to buy more from them and sell less, which will affect the national economy.”

Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard.

Mexico, The Winner?

In the United States, the prevailing view across various sectors is that Mexico is the big winner from Trump’s tariff policy. At the end of December, after consulting several analysts, The Wall Street Journal reported that, because the tariffs imposed on Mexico are lower than those imposed on most other countries, and given the desire to limit purchases from China, imports from Mexico are covering a portion of the demand.

But let’s look at some of the results of the tariff strategy in figures.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), in 2024, China’s merchandise exports accounted for 14 percent of total global merchandise exports. This figure excludes the sale of services. In contrast, US exports represented 10 percent of all global sales.

These figures hardly paint a picture of an empire. But Donald Trump uses them in his rhetoric to incite hatred among American citizens against China, Mexico, or any other country. He has done so since his first term, but in this second term, he has escalated his measures. On April 2, “Liberation Day,” when announcing tariffs on almost the entire world, he said that his country has been violated and plundered by other nations.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2020—the last year of Trump’s first term—the trade deficit with China was over $307.966 billion. With a more aggressive tariff policy, by the end of 2025—the first year of Trump’s second term—the deficit was $175.412 billion. A reduction of nearly 43 percent between 2020 and 2025.

United States trade balance with China and Mexico.

The opposite occurred with Mexico during that same period; the deficit grew by 49%. According to statistics from our northern neighbor, in 2020 the trade deficit with our country was $110.964 billion, and by 2025 it had reached $164.815 billion. However, if we compare the 2024 deficit (which reached more than $171.491 billion) with the 2025 deficit, we see a 4 percent reduction.

Then, “everyone was announcing that the tariffs would generate a strong inflationary process in the United States. But importers have largely absorbed the cost of the tariffs, and exporters have also assumed a certain percentage of the tariffs to continue exporting to the United States,” says Arturo Huerta.

Inflation closed 2025 at 2.7 percent. That is, prices increased by that average amount. But the cost of food rose by 3 percent and housing costs by almost 4 percent. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s forecast, or rather, its desired outcome, was for inflation to end the year at 2 percent.

Merchants in Mexico announced a price increase for tomatoes due to Trump’s tariffs. Photo: Cuartoscuro.

“Now, the problem is that unemployment has increased,” the researcher adds. In 2025, “an average of 49,000 jobs were created per month. And in the last year of Joe Biden’s presidency, 2024, 168,000 jobs were created monthly. That is, three times fewer jobs are being created under the Trump administration.” Fewer jobs and higher prices. But the U.S. government calls that an “affordability crisis.”

Arturo Huerta believes it will be difficult for importers to continue absorbing the tariffs, so they will ultimately pass the cost on to consumers. Furthermore, he warns: “If economic activity in the United States does not pick up as expected, stagnation and inflation will set in.” In other words, stagflation: high inflation, low GDP growth, and high unemployment.

Blanca Juárez is a journalist and UNAM graduate who covers political, labor, social and cultural issues from a feminist perspective.

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