Bullets:
Chinese exports of electric vehicles are blowing past the sales from legacy carmakers, and even from Tesla.
But China is rapidly taking over markets of fuel-burning cars. In 2024, China exported an estimated 6.5 million gasoline-powered models. Insiders forecast growth of an additional 4 million exports by 2030.
The success of Chinese brands is especially striking in Mexico, where they currently enjoy a 14% market share, while Chevrolet sales there have dropped 17% in two years.
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Report:
Good morning.
We pay a lot of attention to China’s domination of the electric vehicle industry, and the supply chain advantages that Chinese factories have, for the batteries in particular. And how those translate into lower costs for consumers here, and for exporters of those vehicles.
But what is keeping Western and Japanese automakers awake at night, are the exports of gas-powered cars from China. Over the past five years, China went from 6th place in exports of cars, to first.
This is the world’s largest car market, bigger than the United States plus Europe, but the production capacity is twice as big as the Chinese market itself. China exports more EV’s than anyone else, but the export market for gas-powered cars is even bigger. There are over a hundred factories here, with a combined capacity of 40 million internal combustion engine cars per year.
These data are from 2023, and each little car there represents 10,000 vehicles built in China, put on a ship, and sent abroad. Three years ago China exported 1.7 million electric vehicles, 50 percent more than Germany, at #2, and Europe was the most popular market for the EV’s. But 2.7 million internal combustion vehicles were built in China and exported, with huge volumes going to Russia, Latin America and the Middle East:
That is 2.7 million cars exported in 2023. The following year, 2024, China exported around 6.5 million gasoline models. 76% of China’s car exports are cars that burn gasoline. Western carmakers are already in a fight for their lives on electric vehicles, and are now in trouble in the traditional car segment.
This is Reuters, with a good breakdown, by brand. BYD and Tesla plants in China build and export electric vehicles—they’re in blue. All these red bars are exports of gasoline cars. Industry insiders forecast that Chinese sales will grow by another 4 million vehicles by 2030, and will gobble up markets everywhere they’re allowed—which is everywhere except North America and Western Europe.
The problem for Western brands is that the price points on Chinese cars make them untouchable. Volkswagen, GM, and Stellantis can’t compete against the more affordable Chinese brands, with better software and safety features besides. Chinese cars are mostly banned in the Europe and in the United States, but legacy carmakers were sleeping, and now the markets are going away for them everywhere else.
One of China’s biggest markets is Mexico, and Chinese carmakers have about a 14% market share there, up from zero five years ago. This is mostly at the expense of the legacy carmakers. Fiat, Ford, and Chevrolet are losing sales, and Chevy sales in Mexico have dropped 17% in two years.
Be good.
Resources and links:
Mexico Business, China’s Auto Boom Accelerates on Surge in Gasoline Model Exports
https://mexicobusiness.news/automotive/news/chinas-auto-boom-accelerates-surge-gasoline-model-exports
New York Times, How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/29/business/china-cars-sales-exports.html
China floods the world with gasoline cars it can’t sell at home
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/china-floods-world-with-gasoline-cars-it-cant-sell-home-2025-12-02/
When Every Car Is Made in China
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When Every Car Is Made in China
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