An analysis released Monday provides a more focused look at the economic impacts of US President Donald Trump’s lawless mass deportation agenda, estimating that his administration’s policies could kill nearly 400,000 jobs in the direct care industry, which employs home health aides, nursing assistants, and others.
The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) analysis shows that if the Trump administration achieves its stated goal of deporting one million people per year over the next four years, “the direct care industry would lose close to 400,000 jobs—affecting 274,000 immigrant and 120,000 US-born workers.”
“This dramatic reduction in trained care workers would compromise home-based care services, forcing family members to scramble for informal arrangements to support relatives who are older or have disabilities,” wrote EPI’s Ben Zipperer, the author of the new analysis.
The estimate builds on earlier EPI research warning that Trump’s deportation policies could destroy nearly 6 million total jobs in the US, an economic impact that comes in addition to the pain and human rights abuses inflicted on families across the country.
So far, according to the Department of Homeland Security, the administration is on pace for fewer than 700,000 deportations by the end of 2025—well short of its goal.
But it’s not for lack of trying: In recent months, masked agents have been rampaging through American cities and detaining people en masse, often targeting job sites. Immigration agents have reportedly been instructed to prioritize “quantity over quality,” leading to the detention of mostly people with no criminal convictions.
“Rather than creating jobs for U.S.-born workers as proponents claim,” he added, “mass deportations eliminate employment opportunities for citizens and immigrants alike.”
Recent research indicates that Trump’s mass deportations are harming local economies across the US. Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, noted in August that “the early warning signs show a growing labor shortage, rising prices, terrified employees, and employers left in the lurch without any tools to ensure workforce stability.”
“Should these operations continue unabated over the next three and a half years,” he continued, “the situation could become far worse for the nation as a whole.”
Zipperer wrote Monday that the direct care sector is “highly vulnerable to these enforcement actions,” as it “relies heavily on immigrant labor.”
“The Trump administration’s deportation agenda threatens to trigger a cascading crisis in senior and disability care that will harm families across the economic spectrum,” Zipperer warned. “If the direct care workforce contracts by nearly 400,000 workers due to deportations, millions of older adults and people with disabilities will be left without the professional assistance they need to remain safely in their homes.”
“Rather than creating jobs for U.S.-born workers as proponents claim,” he added, “mass deportations eliminate employment opportunities for citizens and immigrants alike while dismantling a care infrastructure that seniors, people with disabilities, and families depend on.”
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